full transcript
From the Ted Talk by Alex Gendler: Can you solve the monster duel riddle?
Unscramble the Blue Letters
For many dsoimkyn trainers, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at beating B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s calculate the odds. For A to win, B has to smuomn a level 2 Diskymon, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would auallomaticty lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. adidng up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its lveel 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single mhtcaup, multiple fights increase the odds that one of the other disks will summon something better. And although C was the wsrot first-round option, its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage when facing two onptpones simultaneously. This sort of counterintuitive result is why mlndsieiag statistics are a favored tool of uscuronupuls politicians and nefarious Diskymon trainers alkie.
Open Cloze
For many ________ trainers, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at beating B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s calculate the odds. For A to win, B has to ______ a level 2 Diskymon, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would _____________ lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. ______ up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its _____ 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single _______, multiple fights increase the odds that one of the other disks will summon something better. And although C was the _____ first-round option, its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage when facing two _________ simultaneously. This sort of counterintuitive result is why __________ statistics are a favored tool of ____________ politicians and nefarious Diskymon trainers _____.
Solution
- summon
- unscrupulous
- level
- alike
- automatically
- matchup
- misleading
- adding
- diskymon
- worst
- opponents
Original Text
For many Diskymon trainers, it seems intuitive that if A is the best at beating B or C, it should also be the best at beating B and C. Strangely enough, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Let’s calculate the odds. For A to win, B has to summon a level 2 Diskymon, and C has to summon a level 1. Those are independent events, so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would automatically lose to the Burgersaur. But you’d have two ways to win. The 22% chance of summoning a level 6 would give you an outright win, while a level 4 could still win if C summons a level 1. Adding up those mutually exclusive possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. Finally, C will win with a level 5 Wartortilla as long as B doesn’t summon its level 6, giving C a 38% chance overall. So while disk A’s middling consistency was an advantage in a single matchup, multiple fights increase the odds that one of the other disks will summon something better. And although C was the worst first-round option, its decent chance of summoning a strong level 5 gives it an advantage when facing two opponents simultaneously. This sort of counterintuitive result is why misleading statistics are a favored tool of unscrupulous politicians and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.
Frequently Occurring Word Combinations
ngrams of length 2
collocation |
frequency |
level diskymon |
2 |
Important Words
- adding
- advantage
- alike
- automatically
- beating
- burgersaur
- calculate
- chance
- churrozard
- consistency
- counterintuitive
- decent
- disk
- disks
- diskymon
- events
- exclusive
- facing
- favored
- fights
- finally
- give
- giving
- increase
- independent
- intuitive
- level
- long
- lose
- matchup
- middling
- misleading
- multiple
- mutually
- nefarious
- odds
- opponents
- option
- outright
- politicians
- possibilities
- result
- simultaneously
- single
- sort
- statistics
- strangely
- strong
- summon
- summoning
- summons
- times
- tool
- trainers
- truth
- unscrupulous
- wartortilla
- ways
- win
- worst